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For each statistic, I calculated the rolling average from each team's last 5 games to get a basis of how they were performing heading into the game and allowing for some variance to account for teams who get 'hot' or 'cold'. Spread, over-under, EPA (away), return yards (home) and penalty yards (home) had the most volatile SHAP valuesTesting It correctly predicted 56. While the over/under matters a lot when making the model, it isn't the sole determinant of our bets, so it makes sense for this graph to look the way it does. It is interesting to see how REBEL performed on each division in 2021. Before you take a look, keep in mind; these are early predictions! The model did not bet on week 1 games in our testing set because it had no data to go off of that wasn't used for training. The lines are taken from Bovada (some predictions might be slightly different than those above, as lines may have shifted) That's all for this article! A lot of work went into putting this model together, so if you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter analytacist! Stay posted throughout the season for weekly REBEL over/under picks. designer bags cyber monday

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